Refugees Will Cost Sweden $18.6 Billion This Year—9.3x Over-Budget

Migrants Will Cost Sweden 19% Of It’s National Budget

Sweden’s 318,000 “Syrian” refugees, or migrants, will cost the country a bare minimum of $18.6 billion USD in 2017.

That’s 19% of Sweden’s central government’s annual budget, and 3.2% of their GDP—imagine if the US spent $608 billion a year on refugees, same proportions.

That’s just over $58,490 per refugee per year.  For reference, the average Swedish household’s disposable income is only $28,859 USD per year.

Of this, $8.7 billion are the hidden costs of increased migrant crime incidents (specifically, increased rates of rape and sexual assault)—which the government refuses to publicize.

Furthermore, migrants are not contributing to Sweden’s economy—of those refugees that came in 2015, only 500 have jobs.

Calculating the Cost of Sweden’s Syrian Refugees

Let’s look at the facts.

Since 2013, Sweden has been deluged by 318,000 total migrants—lots of people, given there are only 10 million people in Sweden (2 million of which are immigrants themselves).

Furthermore, due to public pressure, the government has stated it intends to deport some 80,000 migrants.

To cover their costs, Sweden’s government has budgeted $2.2 billion for “migration” for 2017.

This is absurdly low.


Sweden’s government deliberately hides the true costs of the migrant crisis to maintain order—they refuse to collect statistics, and punish those that leak information with draconian “hate speech” legislation.  Although in all honesty, social pressure is usually enough to keep people quiet.

This is also the case in Germany, where the number of Islamic immigrants in the country is underestimated by half.

Therefore, I base my analysis on the work of private researchers, who have tried to fill the statistical gaps left by Sweden’s government.

The Cost Of Migrants In Sweden

Here’s how the basic costs break down in very specific terms (figures converted to USD):

1.  Let’s assume that Sweden immediately deports 80,000 people, as they plan to.  Given the average cost of deporting someone in Sweden is $37,000, this works out to $2.96 billion.

Why is this so expensive?  Although the enforcement costs are fairly high (these people don’t want to leave willingly), the biggest chunk here is eaten up in legal expenses.  Refugees are afforded due process in Sweden, which eats up time and money.

migrants cost Sweden extra because they are so destructive
Housing is expensive in Sweden to begin with, but the fact so many migrants are firebugs doesn’t help either. It costs a lot to rebuild the asylum centers they burn down, like this one near Stockholm.

2.  Sweden’s government spends roughly $17,000 per year, per adult migrant, on general asylum costs.  This includes things like housing, food etc.  Given that there are 181,000 adult migrants, this works out to $3.1 billion—already 50% higher than Sweden’s budgeted “migration” costs.

3.  Sweden also has a very generous welfare system when it comes to “underage” migrants—their subsidies actually work out to $74,000 per year (they get a daily stipend for food etc.).  Since there are an estimated 57,000 migrant children in Sweden, this works out to $4.2 billion.

4.  The cost of social services is enormous: migrants get access to Swedish state-funded education, healthcare etc.  However, since Sweden’s government excludes migrant status from usage statistics, it’s impossible to know their exact burden.

The exception is education—we know that migrant children are educated at a cost of $17,600 per year.  This works out to $1 billion a year.

The real education costs are probably higher (but the data is inadequate), because migrant children need translators (sometimes 5 translators per classroom), schools have to pay for added security measures, and migrant children often exhibit learning disabilities (caused by trauma, poor developmental healthcare in their homeland etc.) which means nurses & care-workers are needed in greater numbers.

5.  Healthcare costs regarding the refugees are also significant, with migrants receiving full benefits under Swedish law.  Given that Sweden spends an average of $6,808 on healthcare per person per year, this works out to $1.6 billion for the migrants.  Again, the real costs are probably higher, because the migrants are, by and large, not as healthy as are native Swedes.

For example, many need expensive dental work and surgeries that they couldn’t get in Afghanistan.

In total, the base cost of migrants to Sweden will be at least $9.9 billion in 2017.

And no, they’re not “contributing to the economy” as many on the left claim—only 500 of the 163,000 migrants that arrived in 2015  have jobs.

They live on state handouts.

That’s not surprising, given the massive cultural and language barriers, and the fact that most of the migrants lack relevant job skills—even if they wanted jobs, they probably couldn’t get them.

The Hidden Costs Of Sweden’s Migrant Crime Epidemic

Crime is expensive: not only is policing costly, but price of administering justice is astronomical—there’s a reason lawyers are rich.

First, let’s be clear: the “Syrian refugees” have caused an enormous amount of crime in Sweden, particularly violent and sexual crimes (in other words, the expensive ones).

This should be self-evident to anyone who’s been following the news.  Even the 60 Minutes Australia crew was forced to admit it, when they were attacked by a gang of refugees:

Still, I know this is often a sticking point for those on the left, so let’s break it down statistically.

1. Sweden’s police officers admit that migrants are causing most of Sweden’s crime.

2. Sweden’s National Police Commissioner, Dan Eliasson, has stated that he needs at least 4,100 new full-time officers to deal with the surging crime rates (at a cost of over $160 million a year).

3. Swedish police have now labelled 55 areas as “no-go” zones—206,000 people live in these areas.  They are migrant slums which have replaced domestic law for Sharia.

4. Statistics bare this out.  In fact, migration is to blame for 95% of Sweden’s increasing crime rate (the other 5% is natural population increase).

Furthermore, the types of crimes committed by migrants are an order of magnitude more serious than they used to be.

As you can see in the following charts, which tracks the crime rate of immigrant/migrant men aged 15-44, the number of incidents of serious crimes (red bar) has tripled since 2000, this includes things like murder, rape, and aggravated or sexual assaults.

The number of incidents of moderately serious crimes (yellow bar) has doubled, this includes things like muggings or vehicle theft.  The number of less serious crimes is basically unchanged.

This shows that the new migrants are indeed to blame for Sweden’s increase in serious crime—especially the “rape epidemic” which has taken hold on the country.

Sweden's crime is caused by migrants & refugees, graph

And if that wasn’t enough, we can take a quick look at the rape statistics from 2011 (remember, the Swedish government stopped collecting statistics based on ethnicity, because they didn’t like what they saw).

The below graph shows that immigrants are over-represented dramatically when it comes to rape.  It’s not even close, don’t give me any of that “all cultures are equal” bullshit.  I’ve had quite enough of it.

What Are The Costs Of Migrant Crime In Sweden?

According to a recent study by Ingvar Nilsson, the average cost of an incident of a less serious crime in Sweden, like a mugging, are $22,000.

The cost of a serious crime (violent or sexual assaults) averages out to $67,000.

Expenses included by the researchers include ambulance costs, emergency room operations, sick leave, the need for social assistance for injured people, police investigations, the court system etc.  My point: it was very thorough.

If we calculate the increased cost of crimes associated with the migrants, it turns out that serious crimes cost Sweden an additional $6.5 billion, while less serious crimes cost an additional $2 billion.  Finally, extra policing costs will require a minimum of $200 million for additional officers and equipment.

In total, increased incidents of crime (mostly caused by the migrants) costs Sweden roughly $8.7 billion a year.

When this is added to our previous total (and including extra policing costs etc.), we get our grand total of $18.6 Billion for 2017.

Migrants Will Cost Sweden More Than Money

Perhaps it’s time Sweden, and the West, stopped thinking in terms of how it should deal with the refugee crisis, and think in terms of what it can do—Sweden’s model is simply not sustainable.

Migrants cost Sweden almost 20% of its government budget, and it will only get worse.  In fact, even the UN predicts that Sweden will become a 3rd world country by 2030.

It’s almost inevitable at this point.

Of course, Sweden’s not alone: America also wastes enormous amounts of money, such as $190 billion on foreign aid—meanwhile nearly 50,000 US veterans live on the streets.

Nero fiddled while Rome burned.

Just as a side-note: if Sweden wanted to help refugees so badly, why didn’t they help the 2.6 million Ukrainian refugees fleeing civil war?  They’re closer, share European cultural roots, and they have a political interest in realigning Ukraine away from Russia.

I guess Ukrainians aren’t “diverse enough”.

About Spencer P Morrison 135 Articles
J.D. B.A. in Ancient & Medieval History. Writer and independent intellectual, with a focus on applied philosophy, empirical history, and practical economics. Author of "Bobbins, Not Gold," Editor-In-Chief of the National Economics Editorial, and contributor to American Greatness. His work has appeared in publications including the Daily Caller, the American Thinker, and the Foundation for Economic Education.


  1. Good analysis. However, I would like to point out the “only 500 migrants have jobs” statement. “Only 500 of the applied 163,000 asylum seekers last year have jobs” might be a better phrasing, or saying “Only about 0.31% (0.3067%/less than 0.5%) of last year’s asylum seekers (163,000) have jobs.” I get it was likely for stay concise and making a point, but just a suggestion.

    • The fact where the data comes from is less important than if the data is actually correct, in my opinion.

      Just fyi: this cost is nothing compared to the cost of ALL immigrants in Sweden. People are claiming that the 2015 invasion was something spectacular. It wasn’t. It was big, yes, but Sweden has taken in over 100 thousand of these anim…”people”…every year for over two decades. Few work, many live on welfare, many rape/murder/rob or destroy our society in other ways.

      10 years ago the net cost for these “people” was over 1 billion SEK every single day (~110 million US$ a day). This cost has of course increased a lot.

      The worst traitor in the history of the world, Fredrik Reinfeldt, even went as far as to claim that we (the Swedish people) had to be willing to accept that we wouldn’t be able to afford any improvements in anything (including education, defense etc) due to immigration…and he’s the guy mainly responsible for it! And the people did nothing!

    • You’re pretty arrogant and rude. Do you live in Sweden? FYI there are 3,760 vacancies in Sweden, this means in terms of taxes 3,760 taxes are not being collected. MUSLIM migrants and Male at that are the bane of our European & Scandinavian Society. Say something useful!

  2. “Sweden’s model is simply not sustainable” is clearly a reasonable statement when looking at the next 5-10 years.

    Even worse “Sweden’s model is simply” suicidal when looking at the next 10-30 years.

    As an American Swede it is hard to watch Sweden commit cultural suicide.

    • The Swedish model worked great when we had an intelligent, developed, hard working, homogenous population. The country was prosperous, did well in all areas, had almost no crime and…the traitors decided to wreck that. The communists had no struggle, so they had to import one. The worst traitors of them all, those that followed Fredrik Reinfeldt, wanted to destroy the system to implement an extreme version of capitalism.

      It’s rather complicated, but both groups of traitors decided to implement a policy that was based on genocide of their own people.

      And the people let them…this pathetic people let them…(I fought the best I could, but it’s not a fight a single person can win)

  3. in decades past, when the man in the street saw figures like this, he would assume that the migrants were to blame without thought. now that the left has turned western schools into indoctrination centers, the man in the street assumes that the figures are made up.

    this all shows that at heart, we’re all a bunch of provincials. because we are taught no different, we assume that everybody is like us, and will respond like we do. at some point, i’m sure we will be the same, but that will be when we are all enslaved.

  4. “Refugees Will Cost Sweden $32.7 Billion This Year”
    “In total, the cost of migrants to Sweden will be at least $22.46 billion in 2017.”

    Two figures. Can you elaborate.

  5. This happens when society became atheist and reject God. Do you think this is new? it happened already in the past. When people abandon God, the Middle east people jumps to destroy their countries. I am not sure how people who claim to be “critical thinkers” end with such stupidity. . This self destruction

    • Oh stfu. First of all: your imaginary friend, the invisible super villain, was made up by the same group of people that now are destroying the West. The difference between muslims and christians is minor at best, and mainly just a matter of time. Christians have murdered their way through history in similar fashion to how muslims have.

      Religion is EVIL. Religious people are dumber than thinking people are (and yes, science has shown this) and your morals are disgusting. My morals come from ME, not from some misogynistic goat herders two thousand years ago.

      The problem in Sweden/the West is not based on leaving religion (first of all, the christians in Sweden completely support the genocide) – it’s about stupid people following ideologies. Sure, we grew up and stopped believing in fairy tales, but many people (especially “journalists”) replaced that ideology with an equally disgusting one: communism.

      Religion is a way to control the stupid masses, sure, but religion is not, in any way shape or form, something positive. It doesn’t matter if it’s one of the three semitic cults, hinduism or whatever…religion is ALWAYS bad and religious people are always negative for a society. Intelligent people shun religion (in general, there are exceptions) because we know the difference between reality and fiction.

      That said, obviously in the world today, the muslims are the worst of the worst. But just because christianity is better than islam, doesn’t mean that it’s something good! Getting shot in the foot is better than being shot in the stomach, but I would prefer not to be shot at all. Or decapitated for that matter, considering how religious people behave.

      • I disagree.

        History has shown us that it’s impossible to have a functioning society, that stands the test of time, without a strong religious infrastructure.


        Religion bonds societies, it’s the glue that holds people together. The fact that it’s absolute and immutable, and not based on the logic of the day, is actually what gives it its power: “rational beliefs” & ideologies are necessarily temporary, because they were created by people, and can therefore be challenged by people.

        For example, just look at how fast societies based around “reason” and secular logic crumbled: USSR, Fascist Germany & Italy, Enlightenment Europe as a whole (France in particular). Even now the USA is crumbling in tandem with the fall of Christianity as a stabilizing force.

        When the moral & epistemological absolutes of religion fall, the door is opened for countless thousands of competing truths, which rend society into pieces—unity is replaced by division. The riots in Berkeley or Ferguson, or earlier at Woodstock, are but small tastes of this societal decay.

        Let’s look to history again: ancient Athens lasted about 40 years after abandoning conservative reverence for the gods, since their society became so divided that it couldn’t function. Compare this to Sparta, which lasted 700 years, until it was finally conquered.

        The same is true of ancient Rome: the Republic collapsed once the senatorial class abandoned their religion for hedonism. The Empire restored religion, and lasted until hedonism again crept in. Constantine revitalized Rome again by adopting Christianity, and the Empire continued for another 1200 years, until it was conquered by the Ottomans.

        Now, I’m not saying that these societies crumbled because of some kind of divine punishment; my argument is that when absolute truth is abandoned for relativism, society collapses due to the proliferation of different (and exclusive) ideologies, hedonism, corruption, and treasonous factions. Likewise, this void can’t simply be filled by “rationality”, because it digresses infinitely into a battle over “whose rationality” should society adopt.

        Religion provides the moral & epistemological absolutism that human society needs to flourish.

        That’s why all human societies, in all regions of the world, evolved some form of religion—religious societies always outcompeted atheistic societies.

        Let me ask you this: can you point me to a single example, in all of history, of a successful atheistic society? How about one that’s lasted more than a century? You can’t. They don’t exist.

        Why? It’s because they’re inherently inferior to religious societies. They don’t survive the test of time.

        I should also point out that it’s a scientific fact that humans are biological predisposed to believe in something unconditionally: there is literally a “God gene”, so to speak. If religion doesn’t fill this heuristical niche, something else will.

        That’s why contemporary atheists tend to gravitate towards irrational beliefs in environmentalism, social justice, veganism, communism, libertarianism, utilitarianism, liberalism—any and all “isms” you can think of are replete with atheists searching for a God-substitute.

        And in all honesty, almost all are objectively worse for society that conventional religion.

        Can you imagine what would happen to the US if only atheists were left?

        First of all, the birth rate would drop to, at best, 0.5 children per woman, so the society would last a maximum of 1 generation before it collapsed due to top-heavy demographics. Either that, or it would require mass immigration to sustain itself, irrevocably changing the nation’s demographics—kind of like what’s happened to the West since Christianity declined (along with the birth rate).

        Funny coincidence, that.

        Second, crime would skyrocket, since the vast majority of criminals are godless men—there’s a reason why there’s almost no crime in Utah. And it’s no coincidence that even atheists from NYC work their lives so that they can retire upstate with those Christians they hate so much—even the most ardent atheists (like Christopher Hitchens) eventually recognize that their ideology (or lack thereof) necessarily breeds degeneracy & hedonism.

        Third, the society would be completely ungovernable, since there’s no absolutes holding the people together. It would degenerate into civil war very quickly—the whole country would look like Berkeley.

        Here’s the thing: you can’t have a rational discussion with someone unless you both accept a mutual starting point (ie. syllogistic deductions can only persuade someone if they share your initial premise).

        In a uniform religious society that premise always exists, because everyone accepts the existence of moral & epistemological absolutes. However, in an atheistic society, there is no necessarily shared premise: that’s why you & I have no chance of persuading Antifa degenerates—they’re globalists, we’re nationalists, and there’s no common ground to build on.

        I think the fact that atheists are overwhelmingly represented at the furthest fringes of society (regressive left, libertarians, alt right), I don’t see a way that said society could function for long, much less prosper. It would eat itself—& that’s the way it will always be in any atheistic society, since people will eventually adopt a multitude of ideologies.

        Of course, this says nothing of your fundamental misunderstanding of Christianity & Islam. You lack the knowledge base to have a rational discussion about them.

        Before studying law I was a historian & religious scholar, and I’ll tell you this: if you think Christianity & Islam are at all similar, you’re an idiot. Look up the difference between “orthopraxic” & “orthodoxic” for a starting point.



  6. Need more cartoon contests. Garland TEXAS showed the formula.
    I would say good luck, or best wishes, or something along those lines, best luck, wishes and other such nonsense will not get the swedes out of the mess they have created for themselves.
    I’ll say….America will welcome Swedish immigrants with open arms (although I don’t know if we really should. They created this problem, and would likely still sympathize with their conquerors), because at this point, the natural born swedes will be forced out of their own country. It is inevitable.

  7. 500 jobs? Such as,
    Handling luggage at the airports
    refusing to drive guide dogs in their cabs
    Enforcing halal food and kebabs
    Imans doing disintegration, islamization and hate speeches.
    Leading Islamic charitable/student/social/whatever organizations to demand something not entitled to.
    Having a big career, full of many jobs, in a small amount of time, because they are too demanding and bosses fire them quickly.

  8. 300,000 Close to figure what the developing countries population is growing in one day.
    So allmoust completely useless. It’s only takes money and attention from real problems like climate Change or animal extinction

  9. Swedes need to vote these morons out of office. Until then, they are getting exactly what they deserve for electing them in the first place. If they cannot wake up from their stupidity they cannot be helped.

    • Only Swedes can save Sweden. If they don’t have the will to survive, they don’t deserve to survive honestly. You can only lead a horse to water, can’t make it drink.

  10. It took a couple clicks, bu I eventually got to the primary source for the only 500 have jobs bit and it says:

    “SVT reported on Tuesday that 494 asylum seekers who arrived in 2015 have managed to find a job to support themselves while waiting for their application to get processed.”

    SVT is a public television station, so I assume it uses publicly reported information straight from Sweden’s version of the BLS. But I don’t know. In any event, that last clause seems pretty important. I would imagine it’s much harder to find a job when your immigration status is up in the air and your work visa hasn’t been processed. Do you have any of the numbers for those who have completed the application?

    • I’m not really surprised the number is so low, and I don’t think the biggest factor is the asylum status (although it’s definitely important). I think it’s language and cultural barriers. Think about it, most of these Muslim guys refuse to listen to women or take them seriously, so it’s not like they’ll get jobs where a woman’s their boss. But in Sweden’s hyper-feminist society, that’s pretty much every job. So they’re screwed culturally.

      Not to mention the fact that there’s no point in working when they get a ton of money in welfare benefits. Who cares? It’s better than it was in Syria, they’re basically rich compared to home, and they don’t need to work. Score for them.

    • SVT is part of the propaganda ministry here. Over 50% of the “journalists” at SVT vote for the green communist party (we have three communist parties (red and pink in addition to the green one), and an extreme socialist one).

      What they intentionally fail to tell you is this:
      the socialist government has changed the definition of a “job” to include any organized type of work-like activity, state-funded or not (and it usually is) that the person spends at least 1 hour a week doing. This is why our unemployment numbers are as low as they are. Swedes work, the invaders do not (unless you count selling drugs, robbing and raping as “work”, which they probably will soon enough).

      So these 494 people most likely, just as most other invaders in Sweden, don’t have real jobs.

  11. im pretty sure the average income in sweden is not “41000 USD” its 41000SEK of the Swedish curency. because that would mean a person in sweden earns on average earns just about 364000SEK which seems unlikely considering my dad who curently earns the most in my home only earns 10% of that (36000SEK) and thats Before tax.

  12. I have now tried to address the arrogant comment made by LUKE and twice my comment to HIM has appeared in the wrong place. Luke is a rude and ignorant male and seems to know little about Sweden!

    • Hi Vivienne. Your comment’s in the right place, it just looks funny because of the way the website nests them. Sorry about the confusion.

      And many thanks for the compliment. I love Sweden & Swedes, and hope you guys can get things under control before it’s too late. I hope this article remains helpful.



  13. Sweden claims its computers are not working, as the reason why welfare benefit figures can’t be given for heavily immigrant populated areas!

    I think Sweden is at the top of the pile for spending on immigrants – namely non-western immigrants, but look at France. Here are some statistics of France spending on migrants and their descendants for 2012.

    André Posokhow has calculated that France spent €63 billion on their immigrant population in 2012. The figure includes €16bn for security costs – prison, radicals, etc. He calculated that the total rises to €84 billion if you include the amount that would be paid towards the national debt. If you look at the tax break down for France in 2012, you’ll see that personal income tax contributions were €60 billion, [excluding corporate €38bn and VAT €137]. If this report is correct the entire amount of income tax the individual French person paid was taken up by the migrants.

    This is why the French president Macron needs to borrow. And he has this Eurobond scheme he wants to launch.

    The migrant crisis was one thing, but it’s the immigration system that’s unsustainable. Notably Islamic immigrants have a cultural practise of marrying within families. There could be millions of Muslims within any country but the preferred method of marriage it to one’s cousins and is arranged so that the new partner is found in the old country and brought back to Europe. And 60-80% of these immigrant families are entirely dependent on state welfare. For ex. 80% of German Turks are state dependent. And yet are allowed to arrange marriages for each of their children to Turkish nationals and bring them back to Germany to raise their new families entirely on the state. Germany’s economy by comparison is quite large, and their Turkish Muslim population was relatively small, when compared to France’s Islamic population, who do the same.

    And yet mass immigration is still being touted as a way to aid Europe’s economy. Ex. to help pay pensions for an ageing population. When in fact 85% of the migrants who arrived in the refugee crisis have no formal education, only 15% have a high school certificate or higher.

    And this is typical of what we are seeing in Europe immigration, under the perpetual family reunification, the partners selected for the immigrants’ offspring from Turkey or North Africa, in the UK, Pakistan, often have little to no education. And these newcomers are added with every generation, simply to produce children and send those children back to the nation of origin to bring others in via marriage.

    This is babysitting another culture. But you are paying for the nursery. A nursery that is growing exponentially.

    If you are from the outback of Turkey or the mountains of North Africa, coming to live in Europe on welfare is a luxury. There’s simply no impetus to do more. In North Africa, Europe is referred to as the Paradise. The mere process of immigrating is equivalent to making it. But this immigrant dream is being funded by hard working tax paying European men and women.


    The Economists argues that Merkel needs to OK Macron’s EU bond plan, in order to raise money to hold the populists at bay and ‘save the EU’. However with this rate of immigration and the rising costs attached, it is likely European populism is here to stay.

    • That information from France is exactly what I was looking for, thanks for the link.

      I’ll be working that data into an article this week.

      Cheers bud, thanks for the helpful comment.

  14. LOL… I don’t know where to start..

    the so-called no-go zones are apparently a myth… I live one such claimed area, and as far as I know, we have no problems here..:) but yes, there are some areas that are troubling… but we have no parallell societies, like the USA have…

    religion needed for civilization..?? bullshit… sure, I agree that egoism and greed ruins a lot of society, but since we are not USA, we don’t kill people in spite…. we let greedy retards live (yes, I view greed as a childish characteristic)…
    religion is fascist by nature, so that is not needed…

    • lol keep telling yourself that you prole.

      Name one civilization that’s lasted without religion.

      Irony is that you’ll probably say “modern Europe” despite the fact that it’s completely collapsing within a few decades of the decline of Christianity.

  15. As Stefan löfven won president in 2014 he has open The door for our welfair to all migration. Ans he also tell to every body and in tv live that our economic looks The same as it was in 1977 att 100 miljards, but thats not True.the right no is 1300 billjon.

  16. And 300.000 old peaple (pensioners) in Sweden are very poor and some of them have no money to pay the dentist or buy there medicin. Sometime they don`t have Money to buy food. This the reaalty in Sweden today.

  17. Sweden is scum, there’s no getting around it. An evil anti-white racist-rapist traitor state that serves ethnocide, Islam, and crime. They turned a nordic haven into a boiling hell, just for the hell of it. Satan-Sweden should be its name.

    Only righteous liberation and cleansing occupation can maybe save it now, or patriotic revolution. Given the national ‘Stockholm Syndrome’ paralysing the country, the former is the more likely necessity.

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